Labour’s dilemma
Wednesday, March 8th, 2006
In the latest issue of an ongoing poll conducted by the Sunday Business Post/Red C it was suggested that neither the current coalition parties nor the opposition in its present formation would be capable of holding a majority in Government. The Progressive Democrats and Fianna Fail would fall well short of the 83 seats needed while on the other side of the house the Fine Gael/Labour union would also be wide of the mark, even with Green support.
So if this poll becomes a reality in 14 months time, what would happen next? There are many possibilities on the table for both Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny, but what does it mean for the future of Irish politics, and more importantly Pat Rabbitte when the most plausible coalition consists Fianna Fail and their sworn enemies, Labour?
Since Rabbitte became Labour leader in 2002 he has voiced strong opposition to a coalition with Fianna Fail, in fact, he has ruled it out completely but the question that must be asked is, are there any certainties in politics? More importantly, what is closer to the hearts of the political elite; power or principal? Looking at the present poll the only realistic coalition is between Labour and Fianna Fail. All other coalitions would be too tenuous to work in the long term; they would consist of impotent 4 party (or more) rainbow coalitions, a Fine Gael/Fianna Fail union or two or three parties and a soccer team full of Independents.
So why is Rabbitte so opposed to snuggling up to Fianna Fail? Is it policies? Maybe, but it would be wise to remember the game that is politics. In 1994 Dick Spring took Labour into coalition with Fianna Fail. After five years in opposition, Spring had made a name for himself with his vicious assaults on the government of the day. The public responded kindly to his attacks on the Fianna Fail/PD government and rewarded him with a gain of 18 seats, bringing their take up to 33. Spring then made a deal with Fianna Fail, and the public was never forgave him. After dropping 10 seats in the 1997 election, Spring moved aside and Ruairi Quinn took over. He in turn failed to rule out a Fianna Fail coalition for 2002 and then failed to make waves on the voting public. When Rabbitte came to the helm in 2002 he saw the sword his predecessors had fallen on; in fact his campaign ticket was the rejection of Fianna Fail in a future coalition. Rabbitte understood, and understands the damage such hypocracy can do. If you criticise the government of the day and then join them you will pay in your own blood. However, if you fail to criticise the government you will not attract the support you need to topple them. The choice at hand is to reject a coalition from day one or pay the price for your two-faced antics down the line; Rabbitte’s rejection of Fianna Fail is certainly more than policy-based.
Of course, being in opposition is easy; for example some would say that Sinn Fein are happy to be consistently rejected because they never have to prove themselves. They can make promises they never have to keep. In the same breath, it’s easy for Pat Rabbitte to reject a coalition that is never going to be offered to him. Should FF/PD of FG/Lab get the 83 they need in 2007 Rabbitte will never have his morals tested, but if this poll is anything to go by Pat will have a real decision to make and is sure to endure a few sleepless nights in the process.
What is interesting is the serious dilemma Rabbitte faces, regardless of his decision. If he goes into Government with Fianna Fail he will be criticised for being two-faced, lose party and voter support and damage relations with Fine Gael. If he refuses an offer of Ministerial posts he could be attacked from within too; some party members will argue that the only way to change government is by forcing change upon them rather than slagging them from the sidelines. Besides, are Labour really going to wait around for Fine Gael to get their act together?
A cynic would say that Labour will take whatever offer comes to them; they’ll get the best deal they can and try and ride through the criticism. Pat Rabbitte, however, is sure to pay in blood no matter what he does. He’s damned if he does, damned if he does not. It comes down to this; will Labour be happy to wait another four or five years for a chance in power? Will Labour forget all that talk about an alternative government when the chips are down? Will the decision be made on the basis of policy, pride or power? If Rabbitte is planning a policy shift we will see it happen sooner rather than later, regardless Labour are sure to enjoy some interesting weeks and months.
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March 8th, 2006 at 5:35 pm
Great piece. It certainly will be make or break time for rabbitee. I wonder would he step aside from the leadership to let someone else be the person who brings them into coalition with FF
March 12th, 2006 at 12:48 pm
Interesting idea; I guess it’s possible, and if it all wen’t arse up for them Rabbitte could be waiting in the sidelines to say “I told you so”.
It’s a massive risk to take though, for Labour and Rabbitte, if it went well Rabbitte would never get a ministerial post and if it wen’t badly Labour could destroy themselves.